60% of Today's Jobs Didn't Exist in 1940, Says BofA

Bank of America's research team just offered a refreshing perspective on the AI anxiety gripping workplaces everywhere: we've been here before, and we came out ahead.

In a report released April 28, BofA economists revealed that 60% of jobs in America today didn't exist in 1940. Data scientists, social media managers, and cloud developers were unimaginable careers just 20 years ago, yet they're now mainstream professions supporting millions of workers.

The numbers tell a stunning story of transformation. Agriculture employed 40% of Americans in the early 1900s but accounts for just 1% today. The difference isn't mass unemployment but mass reinvention: the economy created entirely new industries and roles we couldn't have predicted.

BofA isn't dismissing AI's reach. About 840 million jobs globally face some exposure to generative AI, with one in four workers potentially affected. But here's the crucial distinction: exposure doesn't mean elimination.

According to International Labor Organization data in the report, 13% of global jobs fall into the "augmentation" category where AI enhances human work. Only 2.3% face genuine automation risk. The technology will mostly make workers more productive, not obsolete.

The bank points to automated teller machines as a perfect example. When ATMs arrived in the 1970s and 80s, everyone predicted bank tellers would disappear. Instead, lower costs let banks open more branches, and teller employment actually increased as roles shifted toward customer service and sales.

Word processors didn't eliminate clerical workers either. Excel expanded accounting departments rather than gutting them. E-commerce didn't kill retail jobs: America still employs about 15 million retail workers today, roughly the same as the 1990s.

BofA CEO Brian Moynihan echoed this optimism in a February podcast appearance. He noted that in 1969, economists predicted computers would eliminate all management roles. Bank of America now employs roughly 20,000 managers.

The Bright Side

History shows something remarkable about technological disruption: humans don't just adapt, they create. Every major technological shift from the Industrial Revolution to electrification to computerization sparked predictions of mass joblessness that never materialized.

The report concludes with a simple truth that feels especially relevant today: "Adaptability is the new job security." When technology eliminates old roles, the economy responds by inventing new ones we couldn't have imagined.

Some economists warn that AI might be different, particularly agentic AI systems that can autonomously execute complex tasks. But if the past 85 years teach us anything, it's that betting against human ingenuity and economic creativity hasn't worked out well.

The jobs of 2050 probably don't exist yet, and that's actually the most hopeful part of the story.