Economist's Mock Formula Predicts 3 Straight World Cup Winners

When Joachim Klement built his World Cup prediction formula in 2014, he was poking fun at economists who think they can predict everything. Then Germany won, exactly as his model said they would.

The German economist watched his joke turn serious when his formula also correctly called France's 2018 victory and Argentina's 2022 win. That's a perfect three-for-three track record that's earned him unexpected celebrity status.

For the 2026 World Cup starting in June, Klement's model has picked an underdog: the Netherlands. The Dutch team has never won a World Cup despite reaching the finals three times, and bookmakers currently rank them as the eighth most likely winner.

"I was a bit surprised when it came out of my model," Klement told SBS Dutch. "Particularly given that the simulation showed that the Netherlands has a very, very difficult path to the final."

His econometric model measures five factors: GDP per capita, population, temperature, FIFA ranking points, and home-field advantage. It predicts the Netherlands will battle through Morocco, Canada, France, and Spain before facing Portugal in the final.

The formula places Australia's Socceroos making it out of the group stage before losing to Belgium in the second round. The 2026 tournament will be the largest ever, expanding from 32 to 48 teams across 104 matches hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

Why This Inspires

Klement's accidental success story shows how humor and humility can lead to unexpected achievements. His original goal was to highlight the limits of economic forecasting, yet his playful experiment has sparked genuine interest in how data can reveal patterns in sports.

He's quick to remind fans not to bet the house on his predictions. "Just because I was right three times in a row doesn't mean I have a magic crystal ball," he says, estimating that about 50 percent of each match outcome depends on luck.

The economist jokes that he's become "very, very popular in the Netherlands" after his latest prediction. "I just fear that if my prediction doesn't come true this time around, I might not be allowed back into the country in December!"

Whether the Netherlands lifts the trophy or not, Klement's journey from skeptic to oracle reminds us that sometimes the best discoveries happen when we're not taking ourselves too seriously.