International Support Makes Peace Agreements 62% More Likely to Last

When Colombia signed a peace deal in 2016 to end 50 years of war, the world stepped up to help make it stick. New research from the University of Notre Dame shows that international support is the secret ingredient that transforms fragile peace agreements into lasting change.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Nearly 4 in 10 peace agreements fall apart within just five years of signing. But when foreign countries, global organizations, and advocacy groups get involved on the ground, those odds improve dramatically.

Madhav Joshi, a research professor at Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, discovered why. International partners don't just bring money and expertise. Their visible presence raises the stakes for leaders who might otherwise abandon difficult reforms.

"When domestic actors face higher reputational costs, they are less likely to shirk their commitment to implementing peace," Joshi explained. No leader wants to lose face on the world stage.

Colombia proves the point. More than 30 international partners supported the 2016 accord, including the European Union, United Nations, and the Carter Center. When a new president took office in 2018 after campaigning against the agreement, he couldn't walk away from it. Global eyes were watching.

Joshi tracked 578 individual commitments over seven years using real time data. This marked the first time a university research center directly monitored a peace agreement as it unfolded. The deeper the international engagement, the better the results.

The findings offer hope for conflict zones worldwide. Previous research focused on why leaders fail to follow through on peace deals. Joshi's work shows how to prevent that failure before it happens.

The Ripple Effect

The implications reach far beyond Colombia. Armed conflicts have devastated communities across the globe, from Syria to Sudan to Myanmar. This research provides a tested blueprint that policymakers can apply to future negotiations.

The key is timing. International partners need to be built into peace strategies from the very beginning, not added as an afterthought. When support starts before the ink dries on an agreement and continues through implementation, peace has its best chance to take root.

Joshi's broader work at the Peace Accords Matrix maintains the world's largest database on peace agreement implementation. The research has already shown that including gender issues and building partial agreements both strengthen final deals.

For families living through conflict, this research represents more than academic findings. It offers a proven path toward the stability they desperately need. When the international community commits to supporting peace, children can go to school without fear, farmers can tend their fields, and displaced families can finally come home.

The formula works, and now the world knows exactly how to apply it.