Mexico Homicides Drop 48% in 9 Months Under New Strategy

Mexico is seeing its lowest murder rates in over a decade, offering hope that a years-long violence crisis may finally be turning around.

In June 2026, the country averaged 45.4 homicides per day, down 48% from September 2024. That marks the safest June Mexico has seen in 12 years, according to National Public Security System chief Marcela Figueroa.

The progress extends beyond a single month. The first half of 2026 saw homicides drop 30% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching levels not seen since 2015.

President Claudia Sheinbaum credits a comprehensive security strategy launched when she took office. The approach focuses on strengthening intelligence work, boosting investigation quality, expanding the National Guard, and targeting root causes of crime.

The results show in the numbers. Security forces have made nearly 60,000 arrests for serious crimes since October 2024, seized over 31,000 firearms, and confiscated close to 499 tons of drugs. A focused effort against extortion launched in July 2025 has led to 1,674 arrests of suspects involved in that crime alone.

The improvement reaches most of the country. Homicides fell in 29 of Mexico's 32 states during the first half of 2026, with only three seeing increases.

The Ripple Effect

The declining violence touches lives across Mexico in ways statistics can't fully capture. Forty-one fewer families per day are losing loved ones compared to just nine months ago.

President Sheinbaum addressed skeptics who suggested the June drop resulted from a temporary truce between criminal groups during the World Cup, which Mexico co-hosted. She pointed out that the decline follows a consistent downward trend over months, not a sudden one-month dip.

Some experts have questioned whether authorities might be misclassifying murders as lesser crimes to improve the numbers. Sheinbaum pushed back firmly, stating "homicide is homicide" and noting that classification methods used by state prosecutors are public and were recently updated for transparency.

Guanajuato remains the most affected state with 789 homicides in the first half of the year, followed by Baja California and Chihuahua. On the other end, Yucatán recorded just 13 homicides in six months, making it by far the safest state.

The concentration of violence matters: just eight states accounted for 54% of all homicides between January and June. Targeted efforts in these areas could accelerate progress nationwide.

Mexico still faces serious security challenges, but the consistent decline across multiple months and most states suggests real change may be taking hold.