Mexico Homicides Drop 51% in 22 Months Under Sheinbaum

Mexico is experiencing its safest period in more than a decade, with homicides dropping to levels not seen since 2015. The country averaged 42.5 murders per day in July 2026, marking the lowest monthly rate since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024.

The numbers tell a compelling story of progress. July 2026 was the least violent July in over 10 years, with homicides down nearly 35% compared to the same month last year. Between January and July 2026, the daily average fell to 48.6 homicides, a reduction of 31% from the same period in 2025.

Security Minister Omar García Harfuch credits a comprehensive four-pillar national security strategy, though he acknowledges the work isn't finished. "Some regions and crimes still require constant attention," he said during Tuesday's security briefing.

The government's enforcement efforts have been substantial. Authorities arrested 63,564 people, seized 519 tonnes of drugs, confiscated nearly 33,000 firearms, and dismantled 2,725 illegal drug labs across 23 states since Sheinbaum took office.

The progress extends across most of the country. Thirty of Mexico's 32 states recorded fewer homicides in the first seven months of 2026 compared to last year. San Luis Potosí saw the biggest improvement with an 80% reduction, followed by Nayarit at 63% and Quintana Roo at 60%.

Seven states now report fewer than 50 homicides in the seven-month period. Yucatán leads with just 15 murders, while Durango recorded 29 and San Luis Potosí counted 31.

The Ripple Effect

The declining violence means real safety improvements for millions of Mexican families. Parents feel more secure sending children to school, businesses operate with less fear of extortion, and tourists are returning to regions once considered dangerous.

This turnaround reverses a troubling trend. Homicides had surged 148% during Felipe Calderón's presidency and climbed another 42% under Enrique Peña Nieto. Even during former President López Obrador's term, murder rates remained stubbornly high for years before beginning to decline.

Sheinbaum's 47% reduction in daily homicides compared to 2024 represents the sharpest improvement in modern Mexican history. While critics question whether some murders might be misclassified, the president firmly defends her data: "Homicide is homicide, there is no manipulation."

Challenges remain, particularly in seven states that still account for nearly half of all murders. Guanajuato, Baja California, and Chihuahua continue struggling with organized crime violence. Security forces are ramping up presence in hot spots like Mazatlán to address persistent trouble areas.

For a nation that spent years as a cautionary tale about cartel violence, Mexico's safety gains offer hope that sustained government focus and comprehensive security strategies can turn the tide.