New Tool Predicts Health Risks in Young Psychosis Patients

Young people battling psychosis now have a powerful ally in fighting the physical health problems that could steal 15 years from their lives.

Researchers at the University of Birmingham developed PsyMetRiC, a free web-based tool that predicts when someone with psychosis might develop obesity, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome. The algorithms can forecast weight gain within one year, metabolic syndrome within six years, and type 2 diabetes within 10 years.

The tool fills a critical gap in healthcare. People with severe mental illness die 15 years younger than the general population on average, mostly from preventable physical health conditions. Existing prediction tools used by doctors were designed for older adults and don't work accurately for young people with psychosis.

Dr. Benjamin Perry, who led the development, explains the challenge these young patients face. Psychotic disorders typically appear in the late teens and early twenties, disrupting healthy lifestyles when prevention matters most. Antipsychotic medications can increase hunger and reduce energy, while patients often struggle to access nutritious food, exercise regularly, or receive the same quality of physical healthcare as others.

The research team built PsyMetRiC using anonymous health data from over 25,000 young people with psychosis in the UK, tracked for more than 20 years. The findings appeared in The Lancet Psychiatry, one of medicine's most respected journals.

Testing across eight countries including Spain, Switzerland, Finland, the Netherlands, Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia confirmed the tool works reliably. The team recently secured funding to validate it in the United States as well.

The Ripple Effect

PsyMetRiC represents more than accurate predictions. The researchers prioritized fairness, working with the STANDING Together collaboration to ensure the tool doesn't inherit societal biases that could worsen health inequalities for underserved communities.

The team partnered with The McPin Foundation, The Center for Mental Health, and Equally Well to involve young people with lived experience of psychosis. Their feedback shaped the tool to deliver outcomes that matter to patients, not just clinicians. Many doctors weren't familiar with technical terms like "metabolic syndrome," and patients found them even more confusing.

The web application requires only simple information routinely recorded during clinic visits, making it easy for both primary care doctors and mental health specialists to use. It's designed to spark conversations between patients and healthcare providers about prevention, encouraging shared decisions about lifestyle changes and early interventions.

By catching warning signs years earlier than typical screening would detect them, PsyMetRiC gives young people with psychosis a fighting chance to reverse early physical health problems before they become life-threatening.

Closing a 15-year gap in life expectancy starts with tools that help doctors see what's coming and young patients understand they have the power to change their future.