UN: We Can Still Control How Hot Our Planet Gets

For the first time, the UN Environment Programme says Earth will likely cross the 1.5C warming threshold within the next few years. But here's what hasn't changed: we still control what happens next.

The new Limiting Overshoot report describes a path where temperatures rise past 1.5C, peak as emissions fall, then decline if we remove more carbon than we release. Under the most ambitious scenario, warming would peak at 1.8C by mid-century before dropping back down.

Right now, current policies put us on track for 2.6C by 2100. That's why every bit of warming we prevent still reduces harm.

"The 1.5 limit is not some magical climate cliff where it's just game over," said climate scientist Andrew Weaver at the University of Victoria. "Every tenth of a degree we avoid still means less damage."

The Paris Agreement judges the threshold over years, not single hot summers. While 2024 became the first individual year to exceed 1.5C, sustained warming sits at about 1.4C today.

The Bright Side

Crossing 1.5C doesn't flip a switch from safe to hopeless. A world at 1.6C is less dangerous than 1.7C, and spending less time above 1.5C causes less damage than staying there for decades.

The goal now is keeping any overshoot as low and short as possible. "Decisions, science and, most importantly, mindsets need to shift to seeing 1.5C as a goal we'll be approaching from above rather than below," said Mirey Atallah, chief of UNEP's adaptation branch.

Bringing temperatures back down requires deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions followed by removing carbon through forests and developing technologies. Some damage like rising seas and lost species can't be reversed, which makes swift action even more critical.

But the eventual peak, how long we spend warmer and whether temperatures fall again all depend on choices made right now. As report co-author Richard Betts put it: "It's a reality check. We have to live with this warmer world. But there's still a lot we can do to limit warming."