Clean Energy Boom Survives Policy Changes, MIT Finds

America's clean energy transformation is proving more resilient than anyone expected, even as political winds shift direction.

A new MIT study released Monday delivers surprisingly hopeful news for the planet. Despite the Trump administration repealing key portions of Biden's landmark climate law, about 74% of the clean energy projects expected to be built by 2035 will still happen.

The report, titled "Glass Half Full," examined what happens to solar farms, wind turbines, and other renewable projects after last summer's One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated many clean energy tax credits. Researcher Lily Bermel compared detailed simulations of the electricity grid under both the original Biden policies and current Trump administration rules.

The findings surprised even the researchers. Roughly 71% of the zero-carbon electricity that would have been generated under Biden's plan will still flow through American homes and businesses. About 67% of expected climate pollution reductions in the power sector will still happen over the next decade.

Why the resilience? Clean energy has built powerful momentum that policy changes alone can't easily reverse. Solar panels and batteries have become so affordable that utilities keep choosing them even without tax breaks. State policies, private investment, and market forces are picking up where federal incentives left off.

The news isn't perfect. Coal plants will stick around longer than they would have under Biden's rules. Natural gas plants will run more often. Onshore wind, which lost its tax credits, faces the biggest setback with less than half of expected projects moving forward.

But utility-scale solar and battery storage remain largely unstoppable. More than 80% of planned solar and battery projects will still get built by 2035, the study projects.

The Ripple Effect

The MIT findings suggest that once clean energy reaches a tipping point, it becomes difficult to reverse. Manufacturers have already broken ground on factories. Utilities have signed long-term contracts. Workers have been trained for new careers in renewable industries.

This momentum creates a foundation that survives political changes. Each solar farm that opens makes the next one more financially viable. Every battery project that connects to the grid proves the technology works at scale.

The resilience also demonstrates how state governments, businesses, and local communities have embraced the energy transition independent of Washington politics. California, Texas, and other states continue pushing their own clean energy goals regardless of federal policy shifts.

Even technical challenges like limited transmission lines and long project connection queues are affecting both scenarios equally, meaning the fundamental infrastructure for clean energy growth remains in place.

The study focused only on electricity generation and didn't examine transportation or industrial emissions, where policy changes may have different effects. But since the power sector drives the largest share of expected emissions reductions, the findings offer genuine reason for optimism.

The glass isn't completely full, but it's far from empty either.