Scientists Find Way to Predict Where Big Quakes Will Strike

Scientists just gave communities around the world a powerful new tool to prepare for one of nature's deadliest disasters.

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside developed a breakthrough method to identify where major earthquakes are most likely to happen. Using GPS measurements that track tiny ground movements, they created an algorithm that pinpoints sections of Earth's crust silently storing dangerous amounts of energy.

The team focused on subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another. These areas produce some of the planet's most devastating earthquakes and tsunamis.

"Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand, the fault is quietly accumulating strain," said lead scientist Gareth Funning, a geophysicist at UCR. "This strain can be measured."

The researchers tested their approach in Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, identifying a locked region where stress had built up. A major earthquake later struck that exact location, confirming their model worked.

These locked areas, called asperities, act like patches of friction along a fault. They resist movement as pressure builds until they finally rupture during a major earthquake.

The Ripple Effect

The discovery is already expanding to help communities worldwide. Scientists are now applying the same approach to major earthquake zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and the Pacific Northwest.

The team is even investigating whether the technique could work on California's faults. The Bay Area's Hayward Fault has both creeping and locked sections, much like the subduction zones they studied.

"We're investigating whether we can identify the parts most likely to generate future earthquakes," Funning said.

The method cannot predict when an earthquake will happen or how powerful it will be. However, it gives communities something equally valuable: knowledge of where the greatest hazards exist so they can plan and prepare accordingly.

Better preparation means stronger buildings, improved emergency response plans, and communities ready to protect themselves when disaster strikes.

As Funning reminded residents in earthquake-prone areas, preparation is everything: "There is no substitute for preparation."